Our Guarantees: 2014 NFL Draft
By SLR staff
Now this is something we started in 2013 and it went well…with a few exceptions. Such as, “Geno Smith will be the 1st QB drafted” or “One of the top 3 OT will fall out of the top 10”. So ok, we did take our lumps, but we hit a few home runs as well like “Fisher will go #1 overall” and “we will see a guard go in the top 10 and at least 5 offensive linemen in the top 15” also “There will only be one QB taken in the 1st round”. All in all, it was fun to do and a popular segment, so we’re doing it again and we’ve added a few awesome twists! Also, just a note these are the people involved in making this article happen: Heath “Gibby” Gibson, Will Reed, Sam Lockett, Tyson Tinner and K.C. McNeil. I would like to thank all of them for all their help and hard work.
First thing, and it’s a no brainer to lead off with, young Teddy Bridgewater will not sniff the 1st overall pick (we guarantee that is the Clown Man) nor will he see the top 5, not the top 10 or even 15! Sorry Ted, you had a great team with NFL talent and a schedule that Nick Saban dreams about and you crapped the bed. Not to say Bridgewater sucks or will be a bust (although he could be), we just know you won’t be the first QB off the board. Sorry!
Let’s talk a little about Anthony Barr, shall we? He was one of the top Senior prospects coming into the season and to a point, he still is. However, I thought Barr had a chance to become one of the first few players to get drafted and now that dream is all but lost. Here are some thoughts from some experts on Anthony Barr:
So as you can see, most think he will land in the top 15, but some seem to think he could fall to the mid to late 20’s. That is very dumb, by the way! Todd McShay of ESPN in his “Picks I’d Make” article had Barr going #30 to the 49ers…WOW! And I know he’s not saying that will happen, but that fact he thinks Barr is a fringe 1st round pick is insane. Mel Kiper has Barr #22 overall in his top 100 and has him falling to San Diego at #25. We at NFL Draft Radio are here to save your brain and let you know there’s 0% chance that happens. Our guarantee–he goes in the top half of the draft and will have a very good NFL career and be one of the top 15 players from this draft 3 years from now.
Unfortunately, the Kansas City Chiefs won’t get the wideout they want. It’s sad too, because in a draft that is filled to the brim with awesome talent at the position, K.C. will still be the odd man out… and that’s a fact! OBJ of LSU will be gone roughly 10 picks before Dorsey and Reid step up to the plate. Brandon Cooks will drop off the board an hour or so before #23 and Evans and Watkins will be long gone by then, so the top 4 WR’s on their board will be history. That’s not to say Big Red won’t be taking a receiver #23 overall, but just not the one they wanted. Sorry K.C.! Reid will still be able to get a weapon to catch the football and a solid one at that, but not the difference- maker fans want to see in red and gold in 2014. One more guarantee for Arrowhead Nation, Dorsey will not be able to put together an A+ draft simply due to the fact he has only six picks in the best draft ever. Sorry bro, bad luck!
People are all wrong on RB’s this year and I have no idea why. It’s a strong and deep class with a clear No. 1 guy but most sites and experts don’t see that. Guarantee–Tre Mason is the best of the class and has a 90% chance of being the first back drafted. Florida State runner, Devonta Freeman and Baylor’s Lache Seastrunk are wildly underrated and along with Mason, will be the best rookie RB’s in 2014.
Jadeveon Clowney will not be Rookie of the Year nor will he collect double digit sacks as a rookie. Now calm down, calm down, I’m not saying he won’t be great or go #1, but I think it will take a little time for him to become great. I’ll guarantee now, he’s going #1 overall and it will more than likely be the Texans making that pick. I think when you look at the potential Watt/Clowney combo there is a very good chance (If J.C. doesn’t call in sick to work everyday) that seeing the Texans on the schedule could strike fear into the hearts of the likes of star, Andrew Luck.
Arizona had a special surprise season in 2013 resulting in a trip home after week 17 instead of a roller coaster ride through the playoffs. That doesn’t really have anything to do with what I’m about to talk about but I had to say it for some reason. So, our AZ guarantee is about the throwers for the Cardinals and what they may look like in 2014 and who they may be. I for one, see Bruce Arians grabbing his QB of the future sometime during the first two days of this year’s draft; whether it’s a guy like Teddy Bridgewater falling all the way to #20, trading up in the 2nd round to grab Carr or maybe taking a chance on Jimmy Garoppolo, A.J. McCarron or Mettenberger on day two. The point is, we know the Card’s get their guy this year, we just don’t know who.
Gilbert v.s. Dennard is not something that should be talked about…why? Because Justin Gilbert is far and away the best corner in the draft and will be a better NFL CB. Guarantee–Gilbert is the first cornerback off the board and will have a great NFL career. We also guarantee Dennard with go in the 1st round and be good in the NFL, but he’s not Gilbert.
A bit of a look to the future (I do this so you will have to wait a few years to prove me wrong), and it’s a somewhat bold prediction: By 2016 the Chicago Bears with have wished they drafted DT Timmy Jernigan in the 1st round… that is, if they don’t draft him. Aaron Donald is great and all, but has a lot of bust potential, where Tim Bo is a safe bet in my eyes. All in all, I think the Bears will get Donald and he should be fine, but maybe not.
Will C.J. Mosley follow in the long line of disappointing 1st round picks for the mighty Alabama D? No! Why? Because he and Clinton Dix are really good. Kareem Jackson, Rolando McClain, Courtney Upshaw and Dont’a Hightower were good players in college, but over-drafted due to the fact they played on an elite Bama defense. The Alabama defense ain’t what it used to be by a mile. Mosley is fast, strong, athletic and a leader. Rolando McClain is none of those things, and so he’s a bust. And look, HIghtower has been solid and Upshaw could be really good, but it just hasn’t happened yet. C.J. is different and we guarantee he will at least be in the conversation for the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The 49ers are going to KILL IT and that’s a guarantee. The evidence we have is as follows…
- They have 6 picks in the top 100 and several more on day three of the draft.
- Jimmy Hard has done a hell of a job while hanging in the war room.
- The draft’s strengths fit San Francisco’s needs perfectly and they have the picks to take advantage (debateable at DB).
- An elite team of scouts who work their ass’ off and buy into the organization.
- With 11 total picks, they have the power to move and do whatever they want, whenever they want.
- Last, but not least… the Raiders are on the other side of the Bay!
So when I look at all that, why would I not give the 9 a guarantee to build a ship? I wouldn’t…
This is the worst draft for the Big 12 since I knew what the draft was. Look, it’s not like I’m saying the Big 12 was bad in 2013, but it was not loaded with elite Seniors and Juniors like we have become accustomed to. However, Gilbert is a legit top 15 pick; Jeffcoat is vastly underrated; Baylor has several NFL players in this draft and Jace Amaro could be one of the many great steals of the draft. In closing the Big 12 could make a big impact in the 1st round on 2015 (Bryce Petty, John Gray, Antwan Goodley, Sterling Shepard, Cedric Reed, Jimmy Bean, Devonte Fields, Jordan Phillips, Quandre Diggs, Kevin Peterson), but that’s next year.
At the very least, two of these dudes will be great! We’re only talking safeties and this class is loaded! There is not five 1st round picks or nine before we get into the 3rd, but at least one good safety in every single round. At the top we have Clinton-Dix and Pryor III, round 2 it’s Joyner and Watkins, with Dion Bailey to finish off round 3. The 4th round dude is Craig Loston and more than likely, Ed Reynolds. 5th round we have Ahmad Dixon, 6th and 7th (I’m combining) Vinnie Sunseri, Dez Southward, Ty Zimmerman, Darwin Cook and Jonathan Dowling. I know there’s a really good chance one of those guys hits so… outside of the 1st round guys, Bailey, Loston, Dixon and Sunseri are my favorite picks.
Every year we see guys soar up the boards and fall from the 1st all the way to the pits of day three or the HELL that is undrafted rookie free agency! Although, when you’re a UDFA you get to pick what teams you would like to play for, so it’s not all that bad. But let me get to my point and that is; Tom Savage is the poster boy of flying up draft boards in ’14 and for good reason. He didn’t get any love while playing at Rutgers and his Senior season at Pitt was simple overlooked by almost everybody and I must admit, I was an overlooker as well. But now, just days before the draft, I have changed my view on Savage and some scouts are so in love they’re talking 2nd round. Now that we have said that, let’s state a fact. Here are some quotes from my guys in the league:
“It’s easy, after the 1st round it’s easy you get McCarron, Mettenberger, Garoppolo or don’t draft a QB”.
“Look, I really like the guy (Tom Savage) and wouldn’t mind adding him to the team, but I haven’t really considered even thinking about that prior to day three”.
“I thought everyone was overhyping coming into April and if the draft were April 10th, he may have been a late 2nd or early 3rd guy, but now I think he’s cooled down a bit and he’ll fall to the late 3rd at best”.
“I think he’s very good with a lot of great tools, but it’s a strong class for QB’s in the late 1st through the 3rd and we’d take probably 8 other QB’s before him”.
“He’s been playing in our backyard forever it seems like and I remember watching him back in like 2009 or so at Rutgers. He has a lot of tools and the two conversations I’ve had with him, I get he’s smart too. And if I was the one making the calls for the team I’d pick I’m, but only after the big five were gone and a few more QB’s off the board. Good player though”.
So I don’t hear any hate in those comments, but I most definitely hear no 2nd round love either. Our guarantee is that Savage will not be picked in the top 96 picks, but it should be somewhat soon after. Bottom line… I like the Tommy “Gun” a lot, but not before day three. Also, because I’am a good guy, I’ll give Tomboy a 15% chance of proving me wrong.
Ra’Shede Hageman will get the respect he deserves, but not until after the draft. Sure, the Dallas Cowboys and Bears could draft a DT, maybe Hageman isn’t the best fit for them, but a future star can fit anywhere! The point being, he’s going to fall, maybe even out of the 1st round, and the lucky team able to grab him outside of 32, will be one that can count their blessings. I would almost bet, a good team with a smart front office will be the one to get him.
If the Irish ain’t fighting, they ain’t Irish! Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt are prime examples of that. 2012 was a great year for the Irish defensive line and really ’11 was pretty great, too. However, this season was a bit different and it could have been a National Championship hangover or maybe just lack of hunger due to losing their QB, but nevertheless; those two men played down this past season. The good news is, they will be great at the next level. Picture this, “With the 32nd pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Stephon Tuitt, bad ass, Notre Dame”. Wow, what a pick! Although we are fully aware of the fact that he will and should be a 1st round pick, his partner Nix should be so lucky. I’ll prefix this by saying if he can keep his weight under 345lbs and work hard, he could be an awesome nose. He’s not Poe but, turn on the 2011 tape and see what he can be. Great is what he can be!
A gift from Tyson Tinner
This is just a list of some guys that will and will not be hearing their name called on Thursday and if they do it will be a mistake. If they are destined to be day one picks they will be an “IN”, but if their fate lies beyond Thursday they shall be dubbed an “OUT”.
- DT-Ra’Shede Hageman-OUT
- Wr-Marqise Lee-OUT
- OT-Morgan Moses-IN
- CB-Bradley Roby-OUT
- DE-Kony Ealy-OUT
- LB-Ryan Shazier-IN
- Wr-Kelvin Benjamin-OUT
- CB-Jason Verrett-IN
- QB-Derek Carr-IN
- NT-Louis Nix III-OUT
- LB-Dee Ford-IN
- OT-Cyrus Kouandjio-OUT
- OT-Joel Bitonio-OUT
- QB-Teddy Bridgewater-IN
- Te-Jace Amaro-OUT
- DE-Demarcus Lawernce-IN
- LB-Kyle Van Noy-OUT
- Te-Austin Seferian-Jenkins-IN
- Wr-Cody Latimer-OUT
So, when we get to the final hour and a half of day one and you’re guessing who the next pick may be and what players may be around come Friday, just take a look at this list and you’ll know. A gift! by Tyson Tinner.
Seattle will make an elite 1st round pick! Fact: It will not be wasted on reaching for an offensive tackle nor reaching on any position. They will wait, like a criminal mastermind, biding their time to reap sweet vengeance and patiently waiting, ready to pounce when their star finally falls into their clutches. Sorry for the theatricals, I’m watching Penny Dreadful and it has me feeling a bit sinister. Theatricals aside, I firmly believe Tuitt, Hageman or Moses will be in strong consideration at #32 and if not one of those monsters, another. You have my word fans… the Hawks will not make you regret their pick.
Ryan Shazier could be this years Lavonte David. I must first admit I was not nearly as high on David as I should have been and I paid for it. Now, I did have him going in the 2nd round with a grade of 77.5, but I should have seen the eliteness within him. Ry is a slightly bigger version of Lavonte and maybe even a bit faster. Shazier has become one of my favorite players in this year’s draft and I’m guaranteeing he will be in the running for the Defensive Rookie of the Year!
KC Calls it!
By K.C. McNeil
Hi there! I’m KC, you may remember me from such things as “KC’s 2014 NFL Mock Draft” or “Kc’s College Football Picks”. I’m here today to let you know what’s up! (Also picture a 1980’s cheerleader when reading this) I’m going to get you pumped up and ready for the “give me an N-F-L DRAFT!” Go team! Just kidding. Alright, when Sam asked me to throw in some guarantees, I was pumped because he’s a jerk and didn’t ask for my help last year. So I knew I had to come up with something big this year when I was invited to contribute to this article. After hours of messing around and tossing some ideas back and fourth with Sam and Tyson, I came up with a list of the 5 things I feel strongest about going into the draft. Hope you like it!
1. The Seahawks can afford to draft an offensive weapon in the 1st round
I know adding an awesome defensive lineman like Tuitt, Hageman or Louis Nix III, but imagine adding a titan of a man like Kelvin Benjamin to Russell Wilson’s arsenal! Having a burner like Percy Harvin inside, Baldwin and Kearse on one side and Benjamin grabbing 90% of every 50/50 ball on the other side! That sounds somewhat awesome to me, what about you? Even if it’s not a 6’5″ subhuman android like him. What about Allen Robinson of Penn State, who’s another big, physical wideout that goes up and gets the ball. If Wilson had a target who was elite at getting the 50/50 balls and a monster in the redzone, I think it would take his game to the next level. You could also help Russ by adding a TE like Jace Amaro or Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who could also contribute to the cause much like receivers we mentioned. Look, I’m not saying if the Hawks draft a defensive tackle or end it’s a mistake, I’m saying they should grab a weapon for the QB… and that’s a guarantee.
2. Every time I do a mock I hate what the Colts end up with
I want to clarify I’m not a Colts fan, to be honest, I’m far from it. However, when I’m doing a mock draft I feel like I’m not doing my job if when the mock is over the team didn’t get any better and almost every realistic mock I do, they don’t get better. And yeah, not having a 1st or a 4th round pick and no extras in the 2nd and 3rd make it hard to have a great draft, but that’s no excuse to not get better. They may get a guy like Kyle Van Noy or Dee Ford in the 2nd, if they’re lucky, to help that pass rush. Maybe they could wind up getting help for Luck such as Jordan Matthews, Martavis Bryant or a small receiver like Bruce Ellington or Paul Richardson. The DB core should be striped of all 1st and 2nd round talent by the time Indy has a chance to make their first pick, so no matter how you look at it, if Richardson doesn’t go for over 1,300 yards in 2014, that trade F***’d up their team a bit.
3. This is the 2008 draft reincarnated at the RB position
I get that statement makes you say “didn’t like five running backs get drafted in the 1st round of the ’08 draft?” And yes, we saw five RB’s go in the 1st round and Darren McFadden go #4 overall and this year we should see zero backs go in the 1st and absolutely no chance one of them goes in the top five. Aside from that, the two classes are the exact same; where you have several elite speed guys, a few bruisers that have the speed to make it in the league and a one or two who fall into the Ray Rice ‘do it all kind a guy’ mold. Not only that, but the talent this year is amazing! My list of guys…
- Carlos Hyde (Bruiser)
- Bishop Sankey (Do it all)
- Tre Mason (Do it all)
- Jeremy Hill (Bruiser)
- Lache Seastrunk (Speedy)
- Charles Smis (Do it all)
- Devonta Freeman (Do it all)
- Henry Josey (Speedy)
- De’Anthony Thomas (Speedy)
- Andre Williams (Bruiser)
- Tyler Gaffney (Bruiser)
- Ka’ Deem Carey (Do it all)
- Dri Archer (Speedy)
- James Wilder Jr (Bruiser)
- Jerick McKinnon (Speedy)
I think at the very least, six of these guys make an impact in ’14 as rookies. Not to say Pro Bowlers, but a few hundred yards from scrimmage for each and a handful of TDs is, at most, a gimme. I would go as far as saying three of these guys will be rookie starters and another five become staters for their teams in the next three years. Of course, all this depends on what teams end up taking what players, but the talent of this class is unmatched by any class since 2008.
4. The 49ers must make a play to get Gilbert or Dennard
I love both of these guys! I have them tied as the top guy, but gun to my head, I go Dennard. Still, it’s close and I wouldn’t care which one I ended up with. San Francisco should feel the same way and with double digit picks there’s no reason to sit back and play the passive game. Last year they move up to get Eric Reid and if worked out swimmingly. Doing it again this year to help solidify their defensive backfield is the very best thing they could do for the franchise. If moving up is not the thinking of the 9ers front office, I implore them to reconsider. This is what they should do. As soon as a corner comes off the board, whether or not it’s Gilbert at #10 or Dennard to the Steelers, the 49ers should start calling teams. More than likely, one of these guys will be around after Pittsburgh has picked and jumping up and swapping picks with the Ravens is a very reasonable proposition. The reason I think it’s so important for them to get one of these guys is because it’s a major need for the team, it’s a very deep wide-receiver class and there are only two elite corners available and San Fran is in desperate need of their talents. I guarantee Jim should (keyword should) go get his future shutdown CB.
5. Don’t screw this up Jacksonville
The Jaguars have consistently butchered the draft and that must come to an end in 2014. The Jags made the first good move in years last January when they announced the
hiring of Gus Bradley and it’s imperative to keep the momentum going with a killer draft. Last season, Jacksonville did ok for themselves with the addition of Luke Joeckel and a plethora of defensive backs. They also added Ace Sanders (51rec, 484yds, 1td) and Denard Robinson, but didn’t find all of the long term difference makers this franchise needs. Maybe the most important point is, they didn’t find their quarterback. Sitting at #3, they can either get OLB/pass rusher Khalil Mack, wideout Sammy Watkins or a QB. Now, if the pick is spent on a thrower it CAN NOT be Teddy Bridgewater. I have talked to a ton of Jags fans who would love to grab the Louisville product, but let me save you from your selves. He will never be able to beat Andrew Luck on a constant basis and Manziel or Bortles may not ever be able to compete at that level either, but it is so unbelievable that Teddy has no chance to ever get there. I say take Mack and dedicate the ’14 to building a defense and don’t look back. Next year’s QB class has a chance to be ultra elite with potentially having Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley and Bryce Petty. Jacksonville better add an elite player this year!
Will Wants you to Know
By Will Reed
- The Eagles will not draft a receiver in the 1st round and you can base that on other needs and everything Sam said about the the Chiefs.
- One of the teams in the top 5 will trade down. No guess on who but, at least one moves.
- The 1st RB drafted will not be Tre Mason, nor Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill or any other guy you like. It will be Bishop Sankey and that a guarantee!
In closing, this article is something I get jacked up for every year and hope and think we make it better every time we get to do it. Obviously there is a lot that goes into this and I want to thank Tyson and KC for all their help and work on “Our Guarantees”. I know we will hit some home runs in this story and have a few strikeouts but, we can always blame the misses on “Well, had he went to this team, we would have been right” just kidding. We really hope you like it and feel free to send us an E-Mail ( sam@NFLDraftRadio.com ) or hit us up on Twitter with your thoughts. For our final Guarantee… the 2014 NFL Draft will be BADASS!
NFL Draft Radio Staff